![]() ![]() There were 20 states, plus the District of Columbia, which Clinton won in 2016 and that Biden was widely expected to hold, which he did. On average, Biden achieved bigger swings in states that Clinton won in 2016. ![]() This shows that where votes change is often as important as how many votes change under this system, just like the First Past The Post (FPTP) system used for Westminster elections. One of the reasons the Electoral College stayed as tight as it did, was the differential vote swings in different types of states. Trump’s 2020 national vote share is lower than that achieved by all of the Democratic Party candidates in all six Presidential elections held this century, including the three candidates that did not become President – Al Gore (48.4%) John Kerry (48.3%) Hilary Clinton (48.2%), yet Trump still came close to re-election. Twice this century, a Republican candidate has become President despite losing the popular vote, George Bush Junior in 2000 and Trump in 2016. However, these results make it clear that under the current system, it is perfectly plausible that a US Presidential candidate could receive over half the votes cast, yet still not win the election.Īt present, the Electoral College system gives the Republican Party an in-built advantage. Biden did manage to increase his Electoral College victory by winning a further two states by narrower margins, Arizona by 0.3% (49.4% vs 49.1%) and Georgia by 0.2% (49.5% vs 49.3%). However, his margin of victory in the ‘tipping point state’, Wisconsin, the state that put Biden across the line in the Electoral College race, was a much narrower 0.6% (49.4% vs 48.8%). Joe Biden more than doubled the margin of victory over Trump, to just over seven million votes, yet his victory in the all-important Electoral College was still far from comfortable.īiden’s margin of victory over Trump in the nationwide popular vote was 4.4% (51.3% vs 46.9%). In 2016, Hillary Clinton received nearly three million more votes than Donald Trump, yet lost the election due to the Electoral College system. People clearly thought that the election mattered. Over 158 million Americans voted, nearly 22 million more than voted in the previous Presidential election in 2016. The first thing to note is the massive increase in turnout that took place. Just before the 2020 US Presidential election, we asked the question ‘could Trump win the Presidency and lose the popular vote again’? Now that results from every state have been certified and the Electoral College has confirmed Joe Biden as the victor, we know the answer to that question is ‘no’. ![]()
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